Last week’s Tasty Trends bet of Manchester City to win to nil was a pretty, plus odds win that, at times in the first half, had us quivering with fear. However, like true champions do, City were able to buckle down and keep Burnley out of the back of the net. They gave us a great 1-0 start to the series and an 8-1 start to the Premier League season. If you want to keep up with all my betting action, follow me on Twitter.
This week we are looking to grow on that win with a play based on the trends from Tottenham as they host Manchester United.
Tottenham vs Manchester United
Tasty Trends Record: 1-0 +1.15 units
Tottenham Betting Trends
- Both Teams to Score has hit in nine of Tottenham’s last 10 games
- BTTS has hit in five of their last six home games
- In the last 10 BTTS, nine of them have gone over 2.5 goals
- BTTS has hit in seven out of the last 10 matches against Manchester United
When I looked at these trends, I weighed the options of betting both teams to score or both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. The first is -180, with an implied probability of 64.3%, and the latter is -125, with an implied probability of 55.6%. The safer of the two plays is both teams to score; however, more value comes in when you take both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (-125). Why, you ask, if you have the probability of BTTS hitting around 60-65%, then there is hardly value in -180. However, if you add that when BTTS hits, you have an 80-90% chance of the game going over 2.5 goals, the line of value becomes one with only an implied probability of 55.6%.
Honestly, those numbers probably don’t make sense, nor do you have any genuine interest in them. I remember someone once telling me the game is played on the field, not on a calculator. Okay, fine, I’ll budge. Let’s talk about what we’ve seen on the field that makes me like BTTS and over 2.5 goals.
Although it was just the first game, what I saw from Manchester United had me excited to fade their defense. In their match against Wolves, they should consider themselves lucky not to have conceded a goal. Wolves peppered the net. They probably would’ve conceded multiple goals if Andre Onana had not been standing on his head and playing masterfully between the pipes. Even with his outstanding play, he almost conceded a silly penalty late. A play where it could’ve and probably should’ve been called a foul.
In that match, Wolves took 23 shots, six on target. They generated an xG of 2.35. So, for them to have not scored, it’s almost unlucky. Play that exact match over ten times; I think they score in at least six of them.
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Offensively we know that United have the talent to score. The fact that they scored only once was a bit surprising, especially after 15 shots with two big chances. They still were able to generate an xG of 2.21. Against Tottenham, they should be able to find at least one goal. Tottenham have only kept one clean sheet in their last seven matches. They conceded two goals two a Brentford side without Ivan Toney.
Tottenham will be without Harry Kane since he’s left for the Bundesliga. However, they are far more talented in the attack than Wolves. If United play how they played against Wolves, Tottenham should have no issues scoring goals at home—a place where they have scored at least one goal in their last nine matches.
This bet might be sweaty or cash in the first half. Either way, I trust the trends in this one and bet both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (-125).
Bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (-125).
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August 17, 2023 at 03:51AM
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Tasty Trends: All Gas No Breaks for Tottenham - NBC Sports
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